Monday, May 17, 2010

The NBA and the Upcoming Free Agency

So the prize of the 2010 free agency is obviously Lebron James, but who is actually in the running to sign Lebron? And will any of the teams be able to build a championship team around him?

According to calculations from hoopsworld; the Knicks, Nets, Heat, Bulls, Kings, Clippers, and the Timberwolves have the cap space to sign Lebron with the cap at 57.7 million as established in this year's Collective Bargaining Agreement. That's 7 teams that have a legitimate chance at landing Lebron and walking out of the summer with the best player in basketball. And then there's the Cavs who could offer him the most money, but have failed to deliver Lebron with a supporting cast to bring home the championship.

Here's my thoughts on each of those 7 teams' chances (with the Cavs at the end) on signing Lebron and winning a championship going in order from cap space:

Knicks
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 17.8 million
Cap Space: 39.9 million

If it wasn't for the contract of Eddy Curry (11.3 million next year), the Knicks could have easily walked away from this summer with Lebron, Bosh and possibly another big name like a Ray Allen and immediately contended for a championship. But because Curry exists with his fat contract, the Knicks are stuck surrounding Lebron with Curry, Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas and probably Bill Walker (Team option for 900K). Lebron is set to make around 18.5 mil his first year, unless a sign and trade goes down in which case he can make 19 mil. So that's roughly another 21.5 mil left. Can they use 21.5 mil to create a surrounding cast for Lebron? Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade can make the same amount at 18.5 which leaves them with 3 mil to sign another player JUST to make the minimum 8 player roster. 3 mil to sign 3 more players to make 10? and win a championship? Unlikely. The only way I see a championship caliber team forming in New York is if they land Wade or Bosh on a sign and trade and dump Curry's expiring contract. In that case, they can tack on another 11 mil to their cap and sign some role players, but the likelihood of everything working in the Knicks favor seems HIGHLY unlikely. But then again, he could sign with the Knicks, even with the low probability of winning a championship, just for his love of New York. His favorite baseball team is the Yankees and the King would probably love to call MSG his castle and play at the mecca of basketball under the bright lights of New York.

Lebron Signing: 20%
Winning Championship with Lebron: ~8%

Nets
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 22.2 million
Cap Space: 35.5 million

The Nets barely missed the cut for signing two max contract players this summer and are almost being written off in the Lebron contest, but I feel like the Nets have enough firepower to persuade Lebron to bring his game to Brooklyn.
So we all know the situation with Lebron and part-owner Jay-Z, but how about the potential partnership of Lebron with majority owner of the Nets, Mikhail Prokhorov. According to wikipedia, he's the 39th richest man in the world and is valued at 13.4 billion dollars. You can't tell me he can't sneak some extra cash in Lebron's pocket every now and then, legally or illegally.
In addition to Porkhorov, the Nets actually have role players in place for Lebron upon his arrival. Devin Harris is a capable point guard, as opposed to Mo Williams, Brook Lopez can handle himself down low, as opposed to Shaq/Ilgauskus/Varejao, and I'm sure Yi Jianlian can put up better numbers than Antawn Jamison did during the playoffs. Not only do they have these three players to fill Lebron's ensemble, they also have a 25% chance of winning the NBA draft lottery and landing the likes of John Wall and Evan Turner. If that's not a supporting cast, I dunno what is.
The money is there, a supporting cast is there. The only thing lacking is his favorite baseball team and a major city to play in. Brooklyn is big, but is it Chicago big? New York City big?

Lebron Signing: 15%
Winning Championship with Lebron: 25~40% (depending on draft lottery outcome)

Heat
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 24.3 million
Cap Space: 33.4 million

The Miami Heat have the money to sign Lebron, but would they let go of Dwyane Wade to do it? Wade is an NBA finals MVP, led the Heat to their first ever championship, was the scoring champion in 2009, a 6 time all star and 2010 all-star MVP, selected to 2 All-NBA first teams and 2 All-NBA second teams, and is quite possibly the most recognizable Heat player not named Alonzo Mourning. And Zo didn't even give them a championship. I don't see how Miami will lose all hope on re-signing Wade just to turn around and sign Lebron. And whose to say Lebron would even wanna play in Miami. They created a horrible team for Wade the past few years and I doubt they can miraculously create a team of superstars for Lebron to lead. Maybe sign Wade and get a sign and trade for Lebron, but I don't even think they even have valuable trade chips to get that done. Beasley's value took a huge hit after this season and Cook/Chalmers are definitely not worth Lebron.

Lebron Signing: ~1%
Winning Championship with Lebron: ~1%

Bulls
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 31.9 million
Cap Space: 25.8 million

I have to admit, I'm one of the guys jumping on the Chicago bandwagon for potential Lebron destinations. It's a pretty good situation they have in Chi-town with Rose, Deng and Joakim Noah. Of course, there'll probably be some problems playing Deng and James together since neither can really play the PF spot, but I think they can work out a situation in which the two play wings. Deng shoots a pretty decent 3 (.386 career avg) and Lebron is capable of hitting the trey when needed. It also allows them both to work from the perimeter which are strengths for both Deng and James. Joakim Noah won over the hearts of many for his hustle plays and hard work under the basket, but do you think maybe, just maybe, his comments about Cleveland, Lebron's hometown, pissed off Lebron just a bit? And is there still bad blood about Lebron's dancing? Just a minor speed bump, but a thought to keep in mind although it's probably not as bad as Delonte West shagging his mother if that turns out to be true. Also, they got Taj Gibson who played pretty well during his limited minutes. Although he maybe a bit undersized compared to elite PFs like Garnett and Gasol, I'm sure he can handle his own during the course of the season.
If they do sign Lebron, they can expect about 7.3 million left in their cap space which I think is more than enough to sign some veteran role players. Stackhouse, Devean George, Kurt Thomas, Juan Howard, would all probably take discounts to play alongside Lebron for a chance at a championship if given the opportunity.

Lebron Signing: 20%
Winning Championship with Lebron: 50%

Part 2 for the Kings, Clippers, Timberwolves an Cavs to come tomorrow.

2 comments:

  1. as im not a fan of nba i just scrolled down without reading a line of what u wrote but wanted to leave a note of encouragement and give u props for starting a blog. lol!

    xx

    ReplyDelete
  2. post something I DONT KNOW

    ReplyDelete