The NBA and the Upcoming Free Agency Part 2

Without further ado, here's part 2 of the Lebron Sweepstakes

Kings

Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 33.2 million

Cap Space: 24.5 million

Although highly unlikely that the Kings enter the Lebron Sweepstakes, they technically have the cap space to sign Lebron to a max contract. Regardless, I see three major reason why Lebron will not sign with Sacramento. One, Sacramento is in the process of rebuilding around their new found star, Tyreke Evans. After their Free Agents jet, the average age of the Kings will be 24 with the oldest player being Andres Nocioni at 30. They acquired building blocks such as Spencer Hawes, Omri Casspi and Carl Landry to place around Evans and I don't think its in the Kings future to spend all of their remaining cap space on Lebron, which brings me to my second point. The Kings just don't have the pieces to help Lebron win a championship and if Lebron is looking to win, he's not gonna do it with prospects Evans, Casspi and Landry around him. And third, Lebron wants to play in a major city. Although Sacramento is the capital, it's not exactly the biggest basketball city. Not even Arnold Schwarzenegger will be there next year to watch him play.
With a 15.6% chance of winning the Draft Lottery tomorrow, the Kings should probably stick with their rebuilding plan and look toward the future.

Lebron Signing: ~1%

Winning Championship with Lebron: ~1%

Clippers

Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 33.6 million

Cap Space: 24.1 million

I think the Clippers have remained below the radar in the hunt for Lebron, but with the given cap space, they can steal Lebron away and allow him to play in the big market of Los Angeles. The unlucky, stepbrother of the Lakers have 5 players under contract next year. Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan make up the team with the most upside for next year. We've yet to see Blake Griffin play in the NBA, but if he plays anything like he did at Oklahoma, we can expect a 20-15 guy to complement All-Star, traitor Kaman down low. We see from last year that Eric Gordon is capable of exploding at any time for 25+ and DeAndre Jordan did well averaging almost a double-double during Kaman's absence. If Lebron joins to fill the open 3 spot, the Clippers could make a dent in the Western Conference. In addition, they also have lottery pick in this upcoming draft. Although they only have a 2.3% chance of winning the lottery tomorrow, they have a higher chance of winning tomorrow than the Orlando Magic in '93 when they won their 2nd draft lottery to land Shaq and Penny Hardaway back to back.
It doesn't seem like the most logical place for Lebron to go, but the City of Angeles is a big market city if thats what he wants. And if the Calipari-James package deal is for real, the Clippers have been looking for a legit coach since 1970. I think they're still looking.

Lebron Signing: ~5%

Winning Championship with Lebron: ~15%

Timberwolves

Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 35.2 million

Cap Space: 22.5 million

Although the Bulls and the Nets have players to help Lebron next year, the Timberwolves may have the best team for Lebron to lead. The T-wolves have a core of Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn, and Ramon Sessions for Lebron to bring with him to his first championship. And if Lebron arrives in Minnesota, maybe euro talent Ricky Rubio will cross the Atlantic and play with him. If that's not enough, they also have the 2nd highest probability of landing the top pick, giving them the opportunity to pick up either Wall or Turner to round out a solid cast for a run at the Larry O'Brien trophy. I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota offers Lebron a contract so don't rule them out. They don't play at MSG, but I hear the Target Center is the Garden of the Midwest. Ok maybe I made that up, but hey they could at least give it a try...

Lebron Signing: ~5%
Winning Championship with Lebron: 55% (I love the youth movement)

Cavaliers

3 reasons why Lebron should stay in Cleveland

1. Hometown Boy, Hometown Hero

Just like how Joe Mauer signed an extension with the Twins, Lebron should sign a contract with the Cavs. He was born in Cleveland and he should bring home that championship for his city. Cleveland grew up with Lebron from his times with St. Vincent St. Marys to his 2 MVPs. I think the city deserves to see Lebron at least try and win a championship for them too.

2. Greed is Good
The Cavs hold Bird Rights! Lebron knows if money is truly what he's looking for, he's gonna find it in Cleveland. Cleveland can offer him 30 million dollars more than anyone else. Take the money and make both yourself and they city happy Lebron.

3. Winners never Quit

If he leaves Cleveland, he will always be known as the quitter. He gave up on Cleveland during the last two minutes against the Celtics and that performance will stay with him throughout his career. Prove everyone wrong and finish what you started.

Lebron Signing: 50%

Winning Championship with Lebron: 45%

The NBA and the Upcoming Free Agency

So the prize of the 2010 free agency is obviously Lebron James, but who is actually in the running to sign Lebron? And will any of the teams be able to build a championship team around him?

According to calculations from hoopsworld; the Knicks, Nets, Heat, Bulls, Kings, Clippers, and the Timberwolves have the cap space to sign Lebron with the cap at 57.7 million as established in this year's Collective Bargaining Agreement. That's 7 teams that have a legitimate chance at landing Lebron and walking out of the summer with the best player in basketball. And then there's the Cavs who could offer him the most money, but have failed to deliver Lebron with a supporting cast to bring home the championship.

Here's my thoughts on each of those 7 teams' chances (with the Cavs at the end) on signing Lebron and winning a championship going in order from cap space:

Knicks
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 17.8 million
Cap Space: 39.9 million

If it wasn't for the contract of Eddy Curry (11.3 million next year), the Knicks could have easily walked away from this summer with Lebron, Bosh and possibly another big name like a Ray Allen and immediately contended for a championship. But because Curry exists with his fat contract, the Knicks are stuck surrounding Lebron with Curry, Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas and probably Bill Walker (Team option for 900K). Lebron is set to make around 18.5 mil his first year, unless a sign and trade goes down in which case he can make 19 mil. So that's roughly another 21.5 mil left. Can they use 21.5 mil to create a surrounding cast for Lebron? Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade can make the same amount at 18.5 which leaves them with 3 mil to sign another player JUST to make the minimum 8 player roster. 3 mil to sign 3 more players to make 10? and win a championship? Unlikely. The only way I see a championship caliber team forming in New York is if they land Wade or Bosh on a sign and trade and dump Curry's expiring contract. In that case, they can tack on another 11 mil to their cap and sign some role players, but the likelihood of everything working in the Knicks favor seems HIGHLY unlikely. But then again, he could sign with the Knicks, even with the low probability of winning a championship, just for his love of New York. His favorite baseball team is the Yankees and the King would probably love to call MSG his castle and play at the mecca of basketball under the bright lights of New York.

Lebron Signing: 20%
Winning Championship with Lebron: ~8%

Nets
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 22.2 million
Cap Space: 35.5 million

The Nets barely missed the cut for signing two max contract players this summer and are almost being written off in the Lebron contest, but I feel like the Nets have enough firepower to persuade Lebron to bring his game to Brooklyn.
So we all know the situation with Lebron and part-owner Jay-Z, but how about the potential partnership of Lebron with majority owner of the Nets, Mikhail Prokhorov. According to wikipedia, he's the 39th richest man in the world and is valued at 13.4 billion dollars. You can't tell me he can't sneak some extra cash in Lebron's pocket every now and then, legally or illegally.
In addition to Porkhorov, the Nets actually have role players in place for Lebron upon his arrival. Devin Harris is a capable point guard, as opposed to Mo Williams, Brook Lopez can handle himself down low, as opposed to Shaq/Ilgauskus/Varejao, and I'm sure Yi Jianlian can put up better numbers than Antawn Jamison did during the playoffs. Not only do they have these three players to fill Lebron's ensemble, they also have a 25% chance of winning the NBA draft lottery and landing the likes of John Wall and Evan Turner. If that's not a supporting cast, I dunno what is.
The money is there, a supporting cast is there. The only thing lacking is his favorite baseball team and a major city to play in. Brooklyn is big, but is it Chicago big? New York City big?

Lebron Signing: 15%
Winning Championship with Lebron: 25~40% (depending on draft lottery outcome)

Heat
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 24.3 million
Cap Space: 33.4 million

The Miami Heat have the money to sign Lebron, but would they let go of Dwyane Wade to do it? Wade is an NBA finals MVP, led the Heat to their first ever championship, was the scoring champion in 2009, a 6 time all star and 2010 all-star MVP, selected to 2 All-NBA first teams and 2 All-NBA second teams, and is quite possibly the most recognizable Heat player not named Alonzo Mourning. And Zo didn't even give them a championship. I don't see how Miami will lose all hope on re-signing Wade just to turn around and sign Lebron. And whose to say Lebron would even wanna play in Miami. They created a horrible team for Wade the past few years and I doubt they can miraculously create a team of superstars for Lebron to lead. Maybe sign Wade and get a sign and trade for Lebron, but I don't even think they even have valuable trade chips to get that done. Beasley's value took a huge hit after this season and Cook/Chalmers are definitely not worth Lebron.

Lebron Signing: ~1%
Winning Championship with Lebron: ~1%

Bulls
Guaranteed through 2010-2011: 31.9 million
Cap Space: 25.8 million

I have to admit, I'm one of the guys jumping on the Chicago bandwagon for potential Lebron destinations. It's a pretty good situation they have in Chi-town with Rose, Deng and Joakim Noah. Of course, there'll probably be some problems playing Deng and James together since neither can really play the PF spot, but I think they can work out a situation in which the two play wings. Deng shoots a pretty decent 3 (.386 career avg) and Lebron is capable of hitting the trey when needed. It also allows them both to work from the perimeter which are strengths for both Deng and James. Joakim Noah won over the hearts of many for his hustle plays and hard work under the basket, but do you think maybe, just maybe, his comments about Cleveland, Lebron's hometown, pissed off Lebron just a bit? And is there still bad blood about Lebron's dancing? Just a minor speed bump, but a thought to keep in mind although it's probably not as bad as Delonte West shagging his mother if that turns out to be true. Also, they got Taj Gibson who played pretty well during his limited minutes. Although he maybe a bit undersized compared to elite PFs like Garnett and Gasol, I'm sure he can handle his own during the course of the season.
If they do sign Lebron, they can expect about 7.3 million left in their cap space which I think is more than enough to sign some veteran role players. Stackhouse, Devean George, Kurt Thomas, Juan Howard, would all probably take discounts to play alongside Lebron for a chance at a championship if given the opportunity.

Lebron Signing: 20%
Winning Championship with Lebron: 50%

Part 2 for the Kings, Clippers, Timberwolves an Cavs to come tomorrow.